Will India be one of the first to sign a US trade deal in the global tariff push?

India is poised to become one of the first countries to finalise a new trade agreement with the United States, according to US treasury secretary Scott Bessent. Speaking to reporters after a series of television interviews, Bessent indicated that a could be reached as early as this week or next, offering a significant breakthrough for President Donald Trump as he approaches his 100th day in office.

"Vice President [J.D.] last week and reported substantial progress," Bessent told CNBC, adding, "I would guess that India would be one of the first trade deals we would sign."

Vance's discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid a firm foundation, with both sides finalising the terms of reference to guide negotiations. "This is a vital step towards realising President Trump and Prime Minister Modi’s shared vision," Vance said, expressing optimism about the future collaboration between the two democracies.

Bessent explained that India's relatively low non-tariff barriers, minimal government subsidies, and absence of currency manipulation made it a more straightforward partner for the US in trade negotiations.

We are continuing to make substantive movement on negotiations with many of our trading partners.

The negotiations with our Asian trading partners are going very well; the negotiations with the Republic of Korea have gone very well; the @VP's negotiations with India went very… pic.twitter.com/GlhSSmEANc

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) April 28, 2025

The urgency to secure agreements comes as the Trump administration prepares to implement a new reciprocal tariff regime in July. Without a bilateral agreement, Indian goods could face tariffs as high as 26 per cent.

The Trump administration has aggressively pursued tariff realignment, including blanket tariffs of 10 per cent on most nations except Canada and Mexico, and up to 145 per cent on Chinese goods. Higher tariffs are set to take effect on 8 July unless negotiations with key partners conclude successfully during the current 90-day pause.

Talks with other major economies are progressing with varying results. Negotiations with South Korea have been described as positive, although a government official in Seoul has ruled out the possibility of a comprehensive agreement before the presidential elections on 3 June.

Discussions with Japan have been substantial but complicated by the upcoming elections there, though analysts suggest that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Trump may announce an agreement at the G7 summit in Canada in June.

Meanwhile, the US-China trade tensions remain unresolved. Bessent noted that China’s decision to exempt some American goods from its retaliatory tariffs suggests a willingness to de-escalate.

"It’s up to China to move forward," he said, stressing that the current imbalance, where China exports five times more to the US than vice versa, renders sustained tariffs of 125 per cent untenable.

As the US intensifies its efforts to reshape global trade relations, treasury officials remain tight-lipped about the finer details of ongoing negotiations. However, Bessent is expected to face further questions during a White House briefing on Tuesday, 29 April, as part of an overview of Trump’s record during the early months of his second term.

Separately, India is also engaged in parallel negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement with Britain, with top officials meeting for two days of talks aimed at concluding discussions that have stretched over three years.

If a deal with India is concluded swiftly, it would mark a significant success for Trump’s trade agenda, providing momentum for further agreements with America's other major trading partners.