Delhi witnessed an extraordinary downpour on Friday, logging 77mm of rainfall in 24 hours, making it the second-highest recorded in the month of May since 1901.
The intense storm, which began before dawn and peaked between 2:30 am and 5:30 am, also brought winds gusting up to 80 kmph, catching residents and forecasters alike off guard.
Even the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country’s official weather forecaster, failed to anticipate the severity of the early morning storm.
At 2:30 am—just before the peak of the weather system—IMD’s nowcast only warned of “light rain/thunderstorm/dust storm” for most of Delhi-NCR. Instead, Safdarjung alone recorded 60mm of rain in those three hours, with another 17mm falling before 8:30 am.
This single-day deluge not only made it the wettest day in Delhi in over eight months—since August 29, 2024—but also raised questions about the precision of the IMD’s short-term forecasting capabilities.
IMD: 'We couldn't predict the intensity of the storm'
The IMD later acknowledged the forecasting shortfall.
“We had forecast the rain spell in the region a few days in advance but we couldn't predict the intensity of the storm that struck Delhi-NCR on Friday morning,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
He noted that thunderstorms are notoriously hard to predict in long or medium-range forecasts and are typically captured in nowcasts issued just hours before.
“When an orange alert is issued, it should be taken seriously. It's a signal for people to be alert to possibility of extreme weather,” he added. In this case, however, the orange alert was only issued around 2:30 am, when most residents were asleep and unlikely to see it.
How multiple factors converged
Explaining the rare intensity of Friday’s storm, Mohapatra said it resulted from the convergence of four key meteorological parameters: intense heat, ample atmospheric moisture, unstable conditions, and a triggering mechanism.
While western Rajasthan had been experiencing high temperatures, moisture entered north India not just from the Arabian Sea—as is typical—but also from the Bay of Bengal, due to two cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan.
In the upper atmosphere, strong westerly winds blowing at over 120 kmph between 6 and 12 km altitude added to the instability. The final trigger came in the form of a western disturbance, creating the conditions for what Mohapatra called “a very potent storm.”
The storm's strength and timing have now prompted renewed discussion about the limitations of current forecasting models, particularly for short-duration extreme weather events in northern India’s pre-monsoon season.
(With inputs from ToI)
The intense storm, which began before dawn and peaked between 2:30 am and 5:30 am, also brought winds gusting up to 80 kmph, catching residents and forecasters alike off guard.
Even the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country’s official weather forecaster, failed to anticipate the severity of the early morning storm.
At 2:30 am—just before the peak of the weather system—IMD’s nowcast only warned of “light rain/thunderstorm/dust storm” for most of Delhi-NCR. Instead, Safdarjung alone recorded 60mm of rain in those three hours, with another 17mm falling before 8:30 am.
This single-day deluge not only made it the wettest day in Delhi in over eight months—since August 29, 2024—but also raised questions about the precision of the IMD’s short-term forecasting capabilities.
IMD: 'We couldn't predict the intensity of the storm'
The IMD later acknowledged the forecasting shortfall.
“We had forecast the rain spell in the region a few days in advance but we couldn't predict the intensity of the storm that struck Delhi-NCR on Friday morning,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
He noted that thunderstorms are notoriously hard to predict in long or medium-range forecasts and are typically captured in nowcasts issued just hours before.
“When an orange alert is issued, it should be taken seriously. It's a signal for people to be alert to possibility of extreme weather,” he added. In this case, however, the orange alert was only issued around 2:30 am, when most residents were asleep and unlikely to see it.
How multiple factors converged
Explaining the rare intensity of Friday’s storm, Mohapatra said it resulted from the convergence of four key meteorological parameters: intense heat, ample atmospheric moisture, unstable conditions, and a triggering mechanism.
While western Rajasthan had been experiencing high temperatures, moisture entered north India not just from the Arabian Sea—as is typical—but also from the Bay of Bengal, due to two cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan.
In the upper atmosphere, strong westerly winds blowing at over 120 kmph between 6 and 12 km altitude added to the instability. The final trigger came in the form of a western disturbance, creating the conditions for what Mohapatra called “a very potent storm.”
The storm's strength and timing have now prompted renewed discussion about the limitations of current forecasting models, particularly for short-duration extreme weather events in northern India’s pre-monsoon season.
(With inputs from ToI)
You may also like
Kagiso Rabada suspended after testing positive for recreational drug (Ld)
Savannah International Airport evacuated after bomb threat as passengers stranded
Wynne Evans' new project 'sold out' amid Strictly Come Dancing scandal
Arsenal throw away Bournemouth lead as race for Europe takes twist - 5 talking points
Premier League respond as VAR drama makes difference in Arsenal vs Bournemouth
